Consistency versus Small Bets of Short Term Outcomes

Saturday, September 9th, 2023

Extrinsic motivations aren't enough to drive consistency for most people.

Some people can say, "I am going to hit $10k MRR" and, despite seeing no results, keep going.

I think that is hard, because we are built on feedback loops. No dopamine hits is painful and drags the system.

I was a victim of that, and it hurt many of my businesses.

However, intrinsic motivations may get me up, but it also can result in a startup that fails.

The small bets portfolio approach reduces risk, but the short-term time horizon means there must be a quick win somewhere that monetizes.

But sometimes consistency is what will produce results.

Sticking at a blog 10 years ago for at least six months with no traction was essential to get a meaningful foundation; those who did so were successful and continue to reap the benefits today.

Similar with any endeavor: YouTube, podcasting, Substack.

Small bets needs a quick path to monetization, but it doesn't have to be big as long as you have a portfolio.

This means a small bet must work on a quick monetizable project; but sometimes the money is downstream from this work.

On the one hand, I think doing things that are fascinating to oneself intrinsically such that one stays consistent while honing and improving the craft such that you're so good, you're valuable in the world, seems to be the way things are going; at least those stand-out successes appear that way.

On the other hand, pumping out 1-month monetizable projects to build a portfolio to benefit from randomization reduces risks, but seems like it is harder to get something monetizable unless that discrete unit is both intrinsically satisfying and monetizable.

The middle ground are things like Tweets, which have a long slog but can benefit from consistency; and the consistency must work on things that are intrinsically interesting and compelling; but the tweets themselves are not monetizable: one month of Tweets will very, very unlikely yield revenue (yes, there is the exception of the guy who tweeted about AI and then built a profitable community off of that, but the algorithm gods aren't that generous).

This feels like a balance, perhaps in the overall portfolio, but feels like a limitation to the structure.

Long term games for long term wins.

Random games for random wins.

Somewhere lies a path.